Comments on: A weakening Sun won’t save us

By: guthrie

guthrie — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:55:23 +0000

I went and found a copy of the 1990 report in the library.
Figure 7.1 is labelled “Schematic diagram of global temperature variations since the Pleistocene on three time scales”
Moreover it also says
“The dotted line nominally represents conditions near the beginning of the 20th century.”

That is, a time at least half a degree cooler than now. Moreover it is not referenced to any study of temperature proxies and therefore is not really valid. Hence MBH 1998.

By: guthrie

guthrie — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 19:47:24 +0000

Nick Good – the difference between the 1990 and the 2001 charts is that the former was basically cobbled together for the report from dodgy data, if not none at all, and was a best guess. The latter was the result of several people working for a while to find and put together, based on numerous strands of actual real world evidence, and has been confirmed by multiple other sources since then.

Basically, science advances and improves. So relying upon a single chart from 1990 to make your case indicates that you have no case at all.

Also the cold winter here has nothing to do with longer term climate change. Greenland is at least as warm as it was back in Viking times, except that there’s no evidence from elsewhere on the planet showing that the entire planet was awarm, whereas nowadays we have these things called satellites which show a huge amount of warming everywhere except the places you expect it to warm more slowly.
(Such as Antarctica)

By: Francis Sedgemore

Francis Sedgemore — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 13:40:33 +0000

Climate is not the same as weather. A cold winter (or a few cold winters in a row) is irrelevant, even where it occurs on different continents. And the Mediaeval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were regional phenomena. That is what the data show.

By: Nick Good

Nick Good — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 22:17:21 +0000

>The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were not global phenomena. <
So this year we have as a one off the coldest Winter in a generation – in Saskatchewan, Surrey and Seoul. Yet, during the medieval warming period there were a goodly few generations cultivating grain crops in Greenland and vines in England….and it was just a local phenomenon.

Sorry Francis….Bollocks!

By: Francis Sedgemore

Francis Sedgemore — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 21:33:39 +0000

Sanity hanging by a thread?

By: BengtPersdahl

BengtPersdahl — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 21:09:05 +0000

The denier has its standard based in nature, a single strand of silk is one denier.
“source wikipedia”

By: BengtPersdahl

BengtPersdahl — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 21:08:27 +0000

This is a deadly serious topic close to my heart and I thank you Francis for keeping a compelling angle on the issues. So I apologise in advance for the next post that is a mere frivolous comment that I cannot resist humour …

By: Francis Sedgemore

Francis Sedgemore — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 18:28:22 +0000

Nick – I routinely use the term “denier”, along with “sceptic”, as there is a spectrum of political opinion that takes it both these types. Nature‘s use of the term “denier” is perfectly in order, and I fully respect the journal’s robust editorial stance on this matter.

As for the temperature change graphs, you’re comparing apples and oranges, as the scientific understanding of the global temperature record has developed enormously since 1990. The 2001 graph is the best global average and running mean fit. The Mediaeval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were not global phenomena. Again, this has been discussed ad nauseam, including in the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and I’m not going to use my time rehashing the arguments.

By: Artesian

Artesian — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 16:21:09 +0000

“When hopes and dreams are loose in the streets, it is well for the timid to lock doors , shutter windows and lie low until the wrath has passed. For there is often a monstrous incongruity between the hopes, however noble and tender, and the actions that follows them. It is as if ivied maidens and garlanded youths were to herald the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
“People who see their lives as irremediably spoiled cannot find a worth-while purpose in self-advancement…Their innermost craving is for a new life – a rebirth – or failing this, a chance to acquire new elements of pride, confidence, hope, a sense of purpose and worth by an identification with a holy cause. An active mass movement offers them opportunities for both…”
“ It is true that in the early adherents of a mass movement there are also adventurers who join in the hope that that the movement will give a spin to their wheel of fortune and whirl them to fame and power.”
Eric Hoffer, 1951 – “The True Believer – Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements”

By: Nick Good

Nick Good — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:39:21 +0000

Nature routinely uses the heavily loaded term 'denier'; which makes it rather I difficult to even start off with an assumption of good faith. Anyway something is definitely odd with the Mann hockey stick chart, even on the face of it. Compare the 1990 IPPC chart versus the 2001 IPCC temp chart - the Mann famous/ infamous hockey stick . What happened between the 2? Where did the medieval warming period go, where did the little ice age go? Maybe I missed something.