Putting a probability on John McCain’s head
Sunday 26 October 2008 at 14:20 UTC

You have to hand it to the Democrats. Not only has Barack Obama out-orated his Republican rival, but his party’s campaign excels in terms of shear inventiveness. They have even harnessed science to the cause.
In this week’s Lancet there is a letter from Cambridge, Massachusetts-based John Alam concerning the Republican candidate’s past and likely future state of health. Specifically, the physician and registered Democrat discusses John McCain’s battle with skin cancer eight years ago.
Alam uses an “evidence-based analysis of the available information to calculate the mortality risk to McCain due to melanoma”, and concludes that the probability of the septuagenarian senator snuffing it – and hockey mom Sarah Palin thus becoming leader of the free world should the Republicans win the election – is 12 percent per year for the foreseeable future.
Scary stuff. But note that relatively little attention has been devoted by political commentators to the fact that Obama is a habitual tobacco smoker.
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Thursday 30 October 2008 at 17:35 UTC
True, but does Joe Biden cause you the same concerns that Sarah Palin does? OK, plagiarists are a problem, but I think I’d take my chances on Joe rather than Sarah.
Thursday 30 October 2008 at 18:11 UTC
So would I!
Palin is an absolute disgrace, and McCain is all mouth. I’m not questioning the legitimacy of Alam’s research. But I do find it interesting that, in terms of popular reporting, the momentum is almost 100% behind Obama.
I have my suspicions about the opinion polling that puts Obama in a commanding lead. From what I understand of US politics, it’s always close. When election day dawns, citizens will go to their polling places and vote for the donkey or vote for the elephant, whichever human mask they may be wearing.